BAL⇄PIT

BALBAL Mike Elias net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $16M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Cam SandersP·29y·R/R

+$5.3M+$5.3M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#368 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.27 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ben Cherington net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (Baseball America rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Historically these expected values are unbiased and land within ±2 WAR of reality 75% of the time — yet the side the model favors actually comes out ahead only 53% of the time. The grade is a calibrated bet, not a prediction. Why trades are an efficient market →