SDP⇄STL

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$5.6M net +1.2

received −$2.4M−$3.2M ± $30M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 4.2 ± 4 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mark Sweeney1B/OF·27y·L/L

+$6.3M+$6.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Rich BatchelorP·30y·R/R

+$0.8M+$0.8M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#171 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.43 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Danny JacksonP·35y·R/L

−$9.5M−$10.3M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$22.4M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.42/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$5.6M net -1.2

received +$1.6M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$12.8M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Scott Livingstone3B·31y·L/R

+$2.2M+$1.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Fernando ValenzuelaP·36y·L/L

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.84/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Phil PlantierOF·28y·L/R

−$0.7M−$1.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

-0.00/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.