SFG⇄PHI

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net +$16.0M net +3.3

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2000 odds 83% → 90% (+7.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bobby EstalellaC·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

#641 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.6/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ed Wade net −$16.0M net -3.3

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $18M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2000 odds 2% → 1% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris BrockP·30y·R/R

+$4.0M+$4.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

#341 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.54 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.