SEA⇄SFG

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$3.2M net +0.4

received −$0.8M−$1.6M ± $9M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1998 odds 50% → 52% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave McCarty1B/OF·28y·R/L

−$0.7M−$1.5M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.42/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.20/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$3.2M net -0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $27M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.7 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1998 odds 62% → 60% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott SmithOF·26y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1334 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jalal LeachOF·29y·L/L

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#187 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.51 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.