MIL⇄NYM⇄COL

MILMIL Dean Taylor net +$64.0M net +2.8

received +$16.0M+$15.2M ± $23M expected surplus · +$36.8M realized received 4.0 ± 3 expected · 6.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2002 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Glendon RuschP·27y·L/L

+$18.3M+$18.3M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$36.8M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized 4.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.90/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Alex OchoaOF·30y·R/R

+$0.9M+$0.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.86/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Lenny Harris3B·37y·L/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

-0.21/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$42.4M net -1.2

received −$12.8M−$16.0M ± $46M expected surplus · −$27.2M realized received 5.8 ± 6 expected · 3.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2002 odds 8% → 7% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff D'AmicoP·26y·R/R

+$9.8M+$8.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 1.8± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

#23 overall draft pick → 0.38/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

1.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Lou CollierSS·28y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mark Sweeney1B/OF·32y·L/L

+$1.0M−$0.5M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Craig HouseP·24y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#370 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.01/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ross Gload1B·26y·L/L

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#396 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jeromy BurnitzOF·33y·L/R

−$18.2M−$18.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$33.6M 3.1± 2 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.13/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$21.6M net -1.6

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $24M expected surplus · −$22.4M realized received 3.2 ± 3 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2002 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Benny AgbayaniOF·30y·R/R

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.66/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Todd Zeile3B·36y·R/R

−$11.0M−$11.0M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$19.2M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

1.36/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.