ARI⇄BOS

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 1999 odds 85% → 85% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bart MiadichP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1326 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$1.6M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1999 odds 81% → 81% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob WolcottP·25y·R/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#52 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.