CHW⇄TEX

CHWCHW Larry Himes net +$63.2M net +14.1

received +$26.4M+$26.4M ± $45M expected surplus · +$47.2M realized received 6.8 ± 6 expected · 16.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Scott Fletcher2B/SS·30y·R/R

+$22.8M+$22.8M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 4.4± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

2.23/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Sammy SosaOF·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Wilson ÁlvarezP·19y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$56.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 13.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net −$63.2M net -14.1

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $30M expected surplus · −$16.0M realized received 4.5 ± 4 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Harold BainesDH/OF·30y·L/L

+$8.8M+$8.8M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$17.6M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.32/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Fred Manrique2B·27y·R/R

+$5.4M+$5.4M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.