SFG⇄MIA

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net +$175.2M net +13.0

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $15M expected surplus · +$174.4M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · 12.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1998 odds 39% → 60% (+20.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Robb NenP·28y·R/R

−$4.8M−$4.8M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$174.4M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 12.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.90/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$175.2M net -13.0

received +$16.0M+$16.0M ± $50M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 5.9 ± 6 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 1998 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe FontenotP·21y·R/R

+$12.2M+$12.2M± $36M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 3.4± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#16 overall draft pick → 0.61/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mick PagelerP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#432 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mike VillanoP·26y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#704 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.