TBR⇄HOU

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$52.8M net +5.6

received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $39M expected surplus · +$52.8M realized received 3.5 ± 5 expected · 5.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2022 odds 17% → 21% (+4.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José SiriOF·26y·R/R

+$18.0M+$18.0M± $39M exp surplusrealized +$52.8M 3.5± 5 exp WARrealized 5.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.4/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.65/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU James Click net −$52.8M net -5.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2022 odds 98% → 98% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.