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August 29, 1990

STL⇄OAK

STL won this trade +$56.8M surplus STL won this trade +4.9 WAR
STLSTL Dal Maxvill net +$56.8M net +4.9
received +$31.2M+$31.2M ± $58M expected surplus · +$47.2M realized received 8.2 ± 7 expected · 5.5 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1990 odds 32% → 31% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Stan Royer1B/3B·22y·R/R
+$12.2M+$12.2M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 3.4± 5 exp WARrealized -0.1
Prior
#16 overall draft pick → 0.61/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.61/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Félix JoséOF·25y·B/R
+$10.0M+$10.0M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$50.4M 2.2± 4 exp WARrealized 5.6
Prior
Composite #54.0 pedigree (Baseball America #54 (1990)) → 0.49/yr
Evidence
recent form -0.2/yr over 0.2 season
Talent
0.40/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Daryl GreenP·22y·R/R
+$8.8M+$8.8M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#28 overall draft pick → 0.43/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.43/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net −$56.8M net -4.9
received +$8.8M−$17.6M ± $13M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1990 odds 89% → 90% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Willie McGeeOF·31y·B/R
+$8.6M−$17.9M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.8/yr over 1.8 season
Talent
1.15/yr blended
Horizon
1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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