LAD⇄CHW

LADLAD Dave Wallace net +$0.0M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2001 odds 17% → 17% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

McKay ChristensenOF·25y·L/L

+$1.5M+$1.5M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#6 overall draft pick → 0.67/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$0.0M net -0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2001 odds 24% → 24% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wade ParrishP·23y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#464 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.