ANA⇄CLE

ANAANA Mike Port net +$1.6M net +0.9

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ron TingleyC·30y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.23 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Hank Peters net −$1.6M net -0.9

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.5 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Mark McLemore2B·24y·B/R

+$3.6M+$3.6M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.