CLE⇄PIT

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$22.4M net +3.3

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $24M expected surplus · +$17.6M realized received 2.4 ± 3 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2019 odds 58% → 70% (+12.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jordan LuplowOF·25y·R/R

+$4.2M+$4.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$18.4M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

#100 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Max Moroff2B/SS·26y·B/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#496 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$22.4M net -3.3

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $28M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.3 ± 4 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2019 odds 2% → 1% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dante MendozaP·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#372 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Erik González3B/SS·27y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Tahnaj Thomas

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.