CHW⇄TEX

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$210.4M net +15.5

received +$31.2M+$31.2M ± $49M expected surplus · +$218.4M realized received 5.7 ± 6 expected · 17.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2007 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John DanksP·22y·L/L

+$29.6M+$29.6M± $43M exp surplusrealized +$219.2M 4.4± 5 exp WARrealized 17.4

Prior

#9 overall draft pick → 0.80/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.80/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Nick MassetP·25y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#244 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jake Rasner

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net −$210.4M net -15.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $30M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2007 odds 2% → 2% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brandon McCarthyP·23y·R/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 1.1± 4 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

Composite #49.0 pedigree (Baseball America #49 (2005)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

David Paisano

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $7M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.