Free MLB trade calculator and simulator. Drop in players from any team's roster, add cash, see every player's trade value and what the model says as if the deal happened today. Each piece is valued on its forward-looking expected production and the cost of acquiring it: a young cost-controlled star carries massive surplus, a veteran on a market-rate contract carries little. Toggle to raw WAR up top.
Surplus = expected WAR over remaining team control × the FA market price of a win, minus the contract cost over those years. The $/WAR is tier-adjusted — empirically, FA signings price elite-tier talent at ~$11-13M/WAR and replacement-level vets at ~$5M, not a flat $8M. So Skenes' WAR is worth more per unit than a 1-WAR utility guy's. How the tiered $/WAR works ↗
Surplus values use the same Bayesian model that grades real trades on the rest of the site — each player's pedigree blended with his recent track record, projected over his remaining team-control years, with an age-curve decline. The model doesn't know about no-trade clauses, opt-outs, or whether a team would actually do the deal. It just prices the value. Use it to settle arguments — or start better ones.